Predictions

Warning: shameless arrogance ahead :).

Edit: make that monstrous arrogance, even worse because I'm probably right ;).

So. I speculate, ponder, discuss, muse, and debate on many things within climbing. Possibly due to liking climbing a lot and being heavily involved with it, probably due to having a restless mind. Some of which pondering and indeed discussing involves strong views on the state of climbing, issues of the day, and a status quo that may or may not change. It seems to me quite often that I argue issues (or merely think on them in private), and later see those issues be recognised, or changed so that my way of thinking matches them, or come to pass in a way I could have predicted. Obviously coincidence but it makes me wonder if I'm actually quite often "on the mark" when it comes to climbing issues...

< pauses and neatly side-steps the torrent of bilious contempt and eye-rolling disbelief as it flows through the virtual ether >

...thus I've decided to write down a few issues that I seem to have predicted, and a few predictions of trends that may come to pass in the future. Just for the record, just in case.

Have happened:

Bouldering mats & grades.
When bouldering mats started to become common and people started to use them to vastly reduce the danger and grade of solo routes, I argued continually and vocally (in the face of plentiful disagreement) that grades should be re-assessed to take into account this new protection type...
...and in recent years BMC guidebooks have now got a dual grade system for such routes, and many more solos are being re-evaluated as highball boulder problems.

Onsighting being revalued.
From the time I started debating on the internet, I've always argued in favour of onsighting and against wide-spread headpointing being de-rigeur, again in the face of plentiful disagreement...
...and in recent years, there seems to be a movement across highlighting stylistic progressions, and favouring onsighting and against wide-spread headpointing.

Hard Grit sequel: Hard Onsighting.
Following the excitement of Hard Grit, mates and I would commonly chat about what would be next and would there be a sequel etc etc. I said that there should definitely be a Hard Onsighting film, with the same drama and glamour, but showing the onsighting side of climbing...
...and this year OnSight has been released.

Slate revival.
When I started climbing regularly on slate, it was a well regarded rock type, but still seemed like a bit of a covert rainy day option sort of rock. However I loved the stuff and would actively go to climb on slate alone (i.e. in the Lakes, I had pure slate weekends)...
...and recently it seems to have become increasingly popular, with people valuing it in the same way, in it's own right.

Lancs quarries revival.
A few years ago, similar to slate, I took to the Lancashire Quarries like a duck to (slightly green) water. Again they were used in a "local" sort of way, but online at least I seemed to be one of the few people promoting them to the whole "day-trippable" area, and started getting involved with the clean-ups...
...and now it seems they have more general acceptance and respect.

Rock Warrior's Way acclaim.
A while ago I was recommended this book by a couple of people. It was hard to find and going out of print at the time. I got a copy, was hugely impressed by the issues it tackled and the attitudes it highlighted and started, well, preaching about it to many people...
...and since then more people seem to have noticed it, it's been reprinted, and seems more popular.

Slate re-bolting concerns.
When the recent slate re-bolting / retro-bolting become prominent, I started a thread on UKClimbing asking what sort of consensus process was going on and what the reasoning and planning was for the retro-bolting. This turned into a pretty bitter debate between other people, in particularly the slate activists, not least Mark Reeves decrying it as a "puerile thread"...
...and about a year later, Mark Reeves starts his own thread expressing clear worries about the amount of retro-bolting and new sport routing that has gone on, exactly proving my initial concerns about the way the process was going.

Are happening:

Concerns over gear and safety.
A while ago I was involved in a couple of scary and traumatic accidents that should never have happened in the normal climbing procedure. Following this, and following looking on the Mountain Rescue websites to see just how many unreasonable accidents were occurring, especially due to gear ripping on safe routes, I personally took a stance of getting people to get it right rather than keeping quiet for the sake of tact. And I could see that this would likely become and increasing issue in the future...
...and it seems to becoming so. Many such accidents are still being reported, and people seem to be waking up to the issue and questioning why this is all happening and what can be done about it.

Brushing holds at The Works.
When The Climbing Works first opened, I was impressed with, and praised, the quality of the wall, but pretty soon pointed out that it had a big problem with how dirty the holds were getting. When I posted this online I was pretty much shouted down by people who didn't think I should be criticising an otherwise excellent facility...
...and these days there are signs up to encourage people to brush, brushes lying around everywhere, many people I know see it as a problem (albeit minor), and whenever Graeme catches me scrubbing away he expresses his approval.

May (will?) happen in future:

Culm Coast / Greywacke.
This stuff is the business. I predict it will become increasingly popular, both along mighty Culm Coast and also the South West Scotland sea-cliffs. Why?? Ever-popular crimpy slabs, people already love Carreg-Y-Barcud which is the same stuff, delightful locations, top quality climbing once people realise it's there.

Quarried Limestone.
Lots of limestone around but to be honest a lot of inland stuff is bollox. But surprisingly amongst the lime quarries there are some really good bits of rock and really fine climbing. I predict this will start to become recognised more. Why?? More retro-bolting of it, more information, and a trend towards pure technical climbing rather than the full mountain experience. I think people will catch on.

Hidden local gems.
I've found there have been great hidden gems all over the country, and made it my mission to seek them out. I predict, given the inherently good climbing quality, people will start paying more attention to them and actually travelling to do them. Why?? Improved guidebook information, improved publicity, it's mostly a knowledge thing and once that's out there...

Last minute flexible plans.
It's something I've always done: made plans at the last minute and made them flexible to cope with the rigours of the vengeful British weather. Sure, sometimes I'm left high and dry, but other times I'm able to be climbing high in the dry, rather than sticking with an unsuitable plan. I predict this will start to become more common. Why?? Partly increased information and communication, but partly people waking up and realising that just because you've arranged to go on a weekend in North Wales doesn't mean you should stick to that if it's forecast to piss down there and be bone dry in North Yorkshire.

Seeking esoterica when travelling is hard.
Again, something I do a lot of, and end up finding great climbing that's just off the radar or below the popularity threshold. I predict people will start doing more and more of this and esoterica will become more mainstream. Why?? Because weather, finance, and travelling constraints will make trips away harder and less reliable, and in the meantime people will start to run lower on local options. Once they're force to diversify to get their fix, they'll realise what quality is lurking around, and word will spread...

Hmmmm. There may be more. Be thankful I've forgotten them ;).